Super Bowl 54 Odds Tracker: Patriots Surge, Bears Stumble After Week 1

Sep 10, 2019 09:30 AM EDT

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mitchell Trubisky.

  • By signing Antonio Brown and easily beating the Steelers, the Patriots have gone from 6-1 to 3-1 since last week -- more than a 10% increase in implied probability.
  • The Bears have fallen from 12-1 to 25-1 thanks to an ugly loss at home to the Packers combined with the fact the Vikings won, too.

It’s not often that the Saturday before the first NFL Sunday of the season features big-time Super Bowl odds movement, but that’s just what we had this year thanks to Antonio Brown. The Patriots moved from 6-1 to win Super Bowl 54 to 4-1 just by signing him and then moved to 3-1 after shellacking his former team, the Steelers. Overall, their implied probability (IP) has moved from 14.3% to 25%  — easily the biggest improvement of the week.

Though one might expect the Ravens to make a big jump up the list after dismantling the Dolphins 59-10, they’ve only gone from 40-1 to 30-1 — just a 0.8% IP boost.


The Bears’ chances have been more than halved after their 10-3 loss to the rival Packers. They’ve gone from 12-1 (7.7% IP) to 25-1 (3.8% IP) thanks to that and the Vikings win, which already puts them in the hole in a strong NFC North division.

The Steelers and Browns both fell from 18-1 to 30-1 thanks to ugly losses of their own. They’re lucky to still be tied with the Ravens on the list, though I’m guessing more folks would want to bet on Baltimore at this junction given their lead in the standings.

Here are the full updated odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Click on the date to sort.

Super Bowl 54 Odds Tracker

Preseason Notes

  • The Colts’ chances of winning the Super Bowl were decimated following the Andrew Luck retirement news. They had initially been a trendy choice, moving from +2000 to +1000, but have since dropped back to +8000.
  • The Rams’ implied odds have dropped the second most in the league since they opened at +600 back in January. Now at +1400, their chances have fallen from 14.3% to 6.7% in the eyes of the oddsmakers.
  • The Jaguars made a big jump from +6000 to +2500 thanks to Luck’s retirement. Along with the Raiders (+8000 to +4000), they are one of the biggest movers among longshots.

Super Bowl Betting History

In this century, there have been just three teams with longer than 22-1 preseason odds: the 2001 Patriots (+6000), the 2007 Giants (+3000) and the 2017 Eagles (+4000). Five of the past six winners have entered the season with shorter than 10-1 odds.

Historical odds via

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