Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Aug. 13: Will Brendan McKay Stay Poised vs. Lauer, Padres?

Aug 13, 2019 05:50 PM EDT
Credit:

Gregory J. Fisher, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Brendan McKay

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes Tuesday's slate of games, including how to bet Diamondbacks-Rockies (8:40 p.m. ET) and Rays-Padres (10:10 p.m. ET).
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

The Astros (77-41) and White Sox (52-64) will play a doubleheader on Tuesday — the 25th doubleheader of the 2019 season and the sixth of eight doubleheaders scheduled for August.

Teams who have won the first game of the doubleheader this season are 15-9 in Game Two, and historically playing the chalk in Game Two is the profitable play – so the White Sox could be in deeper water than they already are while going up against both Zack Greinke and Gerrit Cole today.

Though I liked the under in the rained out White Sox -Astros game for Monday, which features the same starters as in Game One on Tuesday, I’m not playing that total with both offenses on full rest – but I might look to play Cole and the Astros to get the sweep provided that Greinke takes Game One as a big favorite.

After three home runs in a doubleheader yesterday, I think it’s safe to say that Gleyber Torres, and not Peter Angelos, now owns the Orioles:

Look at what Torres has accomplished in just 66 plate appearances this season against his division rival:

He’s slowly breaking Orioles announcer Gary Thorne in the process:

Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-1 against full-game moneylines and 1-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).

My plays went 2-2, and I finished up 0.04 units for the day.

It was a positive in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I gained 10 cents against the Rays moneyline (+120 to +110), five cents against the Diamondbacks moneyline (+106 to +101), and a couple of pennies against the two totals that I played.

MLB Betting Model for Tuesday, August 13

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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