Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Sept. 10: Back Padres’ Ronald Bolanos in Second Start?

Sep 10, 2019 07:30 PM EDT
Credit:

Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Diego Padres starting pitcher Ronald Bolanos (57).

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes Tuesday's slate of games, including how to bet the Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (7:07 p.m. ET).
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

The Braves (90-55), Nationals (79-63) and Phillies (74-69) were all supposed to compete for the NL East crown in 2019; but the mostly homegrown Braves have separated themselves from the rest of the pack.

The Nationals (+117) own a better run differential and expected record (82-60) than the division-leading Braves (+102, 82-63), while the Phillies sport a negative run differential (-6) and sub .500 projected record (71-72).

Per FanGraphs, the Braves have a 99% chance of winning the NL East, and the Nationals have a 95.7% chance of making the NL Wild Card. But despite lingering within three games of the Cubs for the second Wild Card spot, those projections only give the Phillies a 2.3% chance of making the playoffs.

With 19 games remaining on their schedule, the Phillies need to go on a tear to end the season; and leapfrog four teams for a playoff spot. They’re 6-7 against the Braves in 2019 and will face them six more times in their next eight games.

Can they get the ball rolling with a win on Tuesday?

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